Understanding your result
The headline is the price range after rebates, with the rebates and the midpoint in the sub-line. The stats give the low, midpoint and high. The table shows the heat pump installed, the backup strips, the electrical upgrade, the duct changes and the permit, the total before rebates, the rebates and the total after, with the sources.
When comparing with a furnace, remember that a heat pump also provides the cooling: the fair comparison is with replacing both the furnace and the air conditioner, which the replacement cost calculator prices. For a house without ducts, the mini-split installation cost calculator prices individual heads.
The size should come from the cooling load with a check of the heating load at your design temperature, which the heat pump size calculator does; the running cost against your current fuel comes from the heat pump versus furnace calculator, and together they give the payback.
How we calculate this
The type ranges reflect the 2025 sources named in the result: contractor and guide ranges for standard ducted heat pumps, cold-climate guides for cold-climate ducted units, PickHVAC’s four to five zone ductless range, and EnergySage’s marketplace average as a cross-check. The electrical and duct-work ranges are the 2025 heat pump cost guides’ figures; the strip-kit range and the size and region multipliers are our estimates, set out here so they can be checked. HSPF2, SEER2 and the cold-climate criteria are on the efficiency ratings table.
The assumptions behind the numbers
| Assumption | Value | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Standard ducted, 3 tons | $7,000 to $15,000 | Contractor ranges $6,500 to $12,500; guides $12,000 to $18,000; EnergySage 2025 ducted average $15,326 after incentives |
| Cold-climate ducted | $10,000 to $20,000 | 2025 cold-climate heat pump guides |
| Whole-house ductless, 4 to 5 heads | $12,000 to $25,000 | PickHVAC |
| Electrical upgrade | $500 to $4,000 | 2025 heat pump cost guides |
| Significant duct work | $2,000 to $8,000 | 2025 heat pump cost guides |
| Backup strips | $300 to $1,000 | Our estimate |
| Size and region factors | 12% per ton; 0.85 / 1.0 / 1.2 | Our multipliers |
| Federal credit | Ended after 2025 | IRS 25C, as amended in 2025 |
Assumptions last reviewed October 8, 2026.
The calculator does not include ground-source (geothermal) systems, which cost much more because of the ground loop, nor removal of an oil tank, a new thermostat beyond a basic one, or zoning. Rebates are what you enter. The guide to heat pumps in cold climates covers the cold-climate decision, and the guide to what HVAC installations cost compares heat pumps with the alternatives.
Two worked examples
A standard ducted heat pump
3 tons, standard ducted, backup strips, no electrical or duct upgrades, average-cost area, permit, no rebates.
- Heat pump installed: $7,000 to $15,000
- Backup strips: $300 to $1,000
- Permit: $250 to $500
- Total: $7,550 to $16,500, midpoint $12,025
For a house replacing a 3-ton AC and an 80% furnace at the same time, this is close to the $7,000 to $13,500 those two would cost together, and the heat pump will be cheaper to run where electricity is under about 15 cents per kWh.
A cold-climate unit with a panel upgrade
3.5 tons, cold-climate ducted, backup strips, electrical panel upgrade, high-cost area, permit, $2,000 of rebates.
- Heat pump installed: $10,000 to $20,000 × 1.06 × 1.2 = $12,720 to $25,440
- Strips $360 to $1,200; electrical $600 to $4,800; permit $250 to $500
- Before rebates: $13,900 to $31,950
- After $2,000 of rebates: $11,900 to $29,950, midpoint $20,925
The electrical upgrade alone can be a fifth of the range. A cold-climate unit that keeps 70% or more of its capacity at 5 °F may need smaller strips, or none if the furnace stays as backup, which can avoid the panel upgrade; ask the installer to size the strips from the load at the design temperature.
Where to find your inputs
Type and size. From the heat pump size calculator or the installer’s load calculation; cold-climate models are listed by the Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships.
Strips. Most ducted heat pumps include them unless the furnace stays as backup.
Electrical. Look at the main breaker (100, 150 or 200 A) and the free spaces in the panel; an electrician’s load calculation decides.
Rebates. Your state energy office, your utility and the ENERGY STAR rebate finder.
Common mistakes
- Comparing a heat pump with a furnace alone. It replaces the AC too.
- Counting the federal credit after 2025. It ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025.
- Oversized strips. Strips sized for the whole load can force a panel upgrade and cost a fortune to run.
- A standard unit in a cold climate. The cold-climate premium usually pays back in avoided strip heat.
- Ignoring the ducts. Heat pump supply air is cooler; leaky or small ducts feel drafty.
- Choosing by price alone. Commissioning and refrigerant charge decide performance.
Questions people ask
- How much does a heat pump cost to install?
- A standard ducted air-source heat pump costs about $7,000 to $15,000 installed for 3 tons, and with backup strips and a permit about $7,550 to $16,500 in the calculator's average case. Cold-climate ducted models cost about $10,000 to $20,000 and whole-house ductless systems of four to five heads about $12,000 to $25,000. EnergySage reported a 2025 ducted average of $15,326 after state and local incentives.
- Is the federal heat pump tax credit still available?
- The federal 25C energy-efficient home improvement credit, which covered 30% of a qualifying heat pump up to $2,000, ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025. State programmes, utility rebates and some point-of-sale rebates continue to vary widely; enter the total you qualify for and the calculator subtracts it. The ENERGY STAR rebate finder and your utility's website list current offers.
- Do I need an electrical upgrade for a heat pump?
- Sometimes. A heat pump with electric backup strips can need a 40 to 60 A circuit on top of the outdoor unit's circuit, which older 100 A services may not have room for. 2025 cost guides put electrical upgrades at about $500 to $4,000, from a new circuit to a service upgrade. Cold-climate heat pumps that need little or no strip heat, or a dual-fuel setup that keeps the furnace as backup, often avoid the upgrade.
- How much more does a cold-climate heat pump cost?
- About $3,000 to $5,000 more than a standard ducted unit of the same size in the calculator's ranges ($10,000 to $20,000 against $7,000 to $15,000 at 3 tons). In zones 5 to 7 it pays back through much less backup heat; the heat pump size calculator shows how much capacity each keeps at your design temperature, and the heat pump versus furnace calculator the cost of the strip heat it avoids.
- Is a heat pump more expensive than a furnace and AC?
- Usually a little more than replacing an AC alone and about the same as replacing an AC and a furnace together, which costs about $7,000 to $13,500 for 3 tons. If both are due, the heat pump is often cost-neutral up front and cheaper to run where electricity is not expensive; if only the AC is due, a heat pump in place of the AC (keeping the furnace as backup, dual fuel) is a common middle path.
- Do I need new ductwork for a heat pump?
- Not usually, if the existing ducts are sound and sized for the airflow, about 400 CFM per ton. Heat pumps deliver cooler supply air in winter than a furnace, so undersized or leaky ducts show up as drafts and slow recovery. Significant duct changes cost about $2,000 to $8,000 in 2025 guides; testing and sealing the existing ducts is cheaper and often enough.